Elections and their Consequences – The UK Elections
Panel discussion on the consequences of the United Kingdom elections that took place on the 11 of November 2024
The members of the panel were Jude Webber (Financial Times), Katy Hayward MRIA (Queen’s University Belfast) and Richard Whitman (University of Kent). Colin Wrafter (formerly of the Department of Foreign Affairs) chaired the panel discussion.
Jude Webber discussed the challenges facing the new UK Government and its approach to global issues and foreign affairs. In her view, the Labour UK Government is facing two main challenges: public services and the economy. The public perception in the UK is that in relation to these two challenges, the Government has been slow to deliver on the big promises made before the general election. Progress has been made in re-establishing trust and resetting the relationship with Ireland, with an agreed Annual Summit to take place first in March 2025. The reset with Ireland is easier than resetting the relationship with the EU. The reset with the EU will include important issues such as trade tariffs and defence. The approach to Brexit taken by the Labour Government is a pragmatic one, a change from seeing Brexit being bad for the UK. In Northern Ireland, the Prime Minister Keir Starmer is seen as having a positive impact and he is expected to champion the reform of the Good Friday Agreement. No policy change is expected with respect to a Border Poll.
Katy Hayward focused on the consequences of the UK general elections in Northern Ireland. She highlighted that one of the consequences is a more diversified representation of unionism in Northern Ireland with the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) and the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) Party gaining at the expense of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The DUP losses are the result of an anti-incumbent vote. Robin Swan (UUP) was elected MP for South Antrim, a seat previously held by Paul Girvan (DUP). Jim Allister, the leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) was elected MP for North Antrim, a seat previously held by Ian Paisley Jr (DUP). Unlike the DUP, the TUV is opposed to power sharing in Northern Ireland. TUV was allied for the 2024 UK general election with the Reform UK party and prominent issues during the elections campaign were Brexit and immigration.
Richard Whitman discussed the consequences of the UK general elections on foreign and security policy. Keir Starmer had two major international events immediately after the general elections, the NATO Summit in Washington, D.C. and the fourth meeting of the European Political Community which took place in the UK. In his view, the UK foreign policy has not changed much. There will be continuity on the policy regarding Ukraine. With respect to the Middle East, the Labour UK Government has decided to reinstate funding for UNRWA and not to submit observations to the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC). The approach adopted is one of “progressive realism” – using pragmatism to progress issues. A Strategic Defence Review has been announced, expected to increase spending on defence. On resetting the relationship with the EU, nothing dramatic has changed. The results of the US elections will impact on the UK trade policy.
The discussion from the floor included issues related to the limited importance of TUV in Northern Ireland; the impact of the results of the US elections on the UK foreign and security policy; whether the UK’s rejoining the EU Single Market is likely under the Labour UK Government; policy issues related to Scotland; the impact of the results of the US elections on the UK trade policy; issues related to general elections in the Republic of Ireland and implications for the all island Nort-South cooperation.
The rapporteur for this event was Professor Iulia Siedschlag, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and Trinity College Dublin
