Reflections on Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment: Volume 3
Being prepared for Ireland’s future climate
Dr Patrick Fournet reflects on the third volume of Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment with additional responses from Dr Peter Croot and Professor Fiona Regan.
Ireland’s climate change assessment (ICCA) published in January 2024 represents a comprehensive effort in assembling Ireland’s understanding of climate change and its present and possible future impacts. It provides us with the most up-to-date tools and possible paths for climate action for Ireland. This short commentary focuses on ICCA’s third volume Footnote 1, entitled ‘Being Prepared for Ireland’s Future Climate,’ and is a snapshot and reflection to highlight its key takeaways and the key gaps it identifies.
ICCA’s third volume is an informative read on the topic of climate change adaptation, which it defines as ‘the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effect in order to moderate harm or take advantage of beneficial opportunities’Footnote 2. It outlines what is needed to increase the country’s resilience in the face of climate change. It gives a broad-ranging review of Ireland’s sectoral adaptation challenges and opportunities.
A picture of the current national state of play on climate change risks and adaptation is painted first. The report states that ‘we are not starting from an ideal position’ due to the ‘ongoing deterioration in environmental quality, including declines in water quality, biodiversity and ecosystem quality.’ The publication subsequently lists 48 sectoral assessments and recommendations, identifies possible paths to realising the benefits of a resilient Ireland, and outlines key knowledge gaps. It articulates the key issues the country faces in managing the risks associated with the projected increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, sea level rise, flooding and drought. Amongst other existing shortcomings in Ireland’s climate change adaption planning, ICCA’s third volume highlights the lack of coordinated management of the risks affecting our coastal settlements, as well as the risks associated with our water consumption and our response to heat stress.
The ever-increasing collaboration and cooperation between academia and government departments present an opportunity to enrich the impact and reach of both the relevant climate policy instruments and the national climate action infrastructures and resources. Furthermore, increased investment in forward, long-term planning and foresight work within government departments could lead to improved engagement between policy makers and academia and to better-informed, evidence-based climate action policy making. Such improvements in our national response to climate change could be further captured in the next iteration of Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment.
The main takeaway from ICCA’s third volume is the call for decisive action and investment in climate change adaptation. Investment in the development of people with the necessary skills to deliver the actions required to adapt to climate change and build a resilient Ireland needs to accelerate. Another main takeaway is the call to focus on outcomes and on people’s wellbeing. While this is also one of the topics covered in ICCA’s fourth volume, ‘Realising the Benefits of Transition and Transformation,’ the mention of systemic change research in ICCA’s third volume is welcome. A much more substantial analysis to identify desirable outcomes, futures and paths to strong sustainability for a resilient Ireland would be appropriate in a future volume.
Finally, building on the subject of people’s wellbeing, one of the key gaps outlined by ICCA’s third volume is the need for increased investment in social sciences, art and humanities research to create narratives of the future and to better communicate the challenges we face. An example of work to support the communication of climate action is the framework, ‘Ten key principles: how to communicate climate change for effective public engagement’ by Sippel et al. (2022)Footnote 3, which includes elements such as: ‘connecting with people’s values, supporting trusted messengers, highlighting visions and solutions, telling powerful stories and using effective imagery, providing accurate information and being careful communicating uncertainty.’ An Irish-adapted engagement framework drawing on Ireland’s cultural heritage has the potential to lead to transformative change.
Dr Patrick Fournet
Response from Peter Croot
The ICCA’s Third Volume is a vital document that has been produced at a critical time and it plays an important role in setting out many of the options that we have available to us now in order to successful adapt to the impacts of climate change in Ireland. It also sets out where the opportunities and risks are for people and the economy and identifies where Ireland has (in)sufficient physical and human capacity to tackle the challenges ahead. The overall message is that Ireland, like so many other nations, requires a more coordinated management and governance of resources and the infrastructure that support them to be able to cope with this.
As Dr Fournet rightly points out in his response, this includes more dynamic collaboration between academia (physical sciences, social sciences and economists) and all levels of government to have near real time, evidence based, climate information that directly feeds into policy. For example, preparing for and dealing with extreme weather events, but also looking at the cumulative effect of this on the country and focusing on the longer term, beyond election cycles.
Dr Fournet’s suggestion around developing an Irish-adapted engagement framework for communicating climate change is one everyone should get behind. At the Mary Robinson Climate Conference in Ballina, County Mayo, in June 2024, there were already many stories from around Ireland of how local groups were devising their own solutions to emerging problems and there was room to exchange ideas and learn from each other and translate these to a national level.
Response from Professor Fiona Regan
Volume 3 of Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment emphasises the urgency of preparing for Ireland’s future climate challenges. Dr Patrick Fournet highlights two critical aspects: the need for decisive action and investment in climate change adaptation, and the importance of effectively communicating the challenges ahead.
Successful adaptation requires a dynamic national policy that responds to the rapid pace of climate change and the evolving risks it presents. These risks, as outlined in Volume 3, span across ecosystems, land use, water resources, infrastructure, health, and business. The report stresses that adaptation efforts must prioritize the well-being of people, and the communities impacted by climate change.
Without clear goals, monitoring the progress and effectiveness of adaptation measures becomes difficult. A key takeaway is that adaptation has not yet been addressed on the scale necessary and tackling it will demand systemic change across all sectors in Ireland. This transformative change will require shifts in incentives, technologies, social practices, and governance models. Given that climate change will disrupt essential systems like food, energy, transportation, and housing, systemic adaptation is necessary to ensure that these critical areas function effectively in the face of climate impacts. The volume identifies existing gaps and offers valuable recommendations on how Ireland can respond more effectively to climate change.
Read Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment in full.
About the authors
Dr Patrick Fournet is a meteorologist at Met Éireann with over 20 years of experience in research, policy and national and international collaborations in a wide range of scientific areas, most recently on climate action. He holds a Ph.D. in Physics from Trinity College Dublin and an M.Sc. in Management of Operations from Dublin City University. Following meteorology and climatology training at Météo France in 2016, Patrick established Met Éireann’s research and development funding programme to build internal and national weather and climate science capacity and has been managing calls for proposals and funding partnerships since then.
Professor Peter Croot is a marine biogeochemist whose research focuses on understanding the role of biogeochemical and physical processes on the concentration and distribution of trace elements and chemical species in the ocean and their role in controlling primary productivity and ecosystem function. His work combines different strands of ocean observations (in situ and satellite, physical, chemical and biological), with laboratory studies to elucidate the kinetics and mechanisms underpinning the transformation of chemical species in the ocean from the surface to the deep.
Professor Fiona Regan is Professor in Chemistry at Dublin City University and Director of the DCU Water Institute. Fiona studied Environmental Science and Technology and later completed a PhD in analytical chemisty in 1994. Fiona’s research focuses on environmental monitoring and she has special interest in priority and emerging contaminants as well as the establishment of decision support tools for environmental monitoring using novel technologies and data management tools. Her work includes the areas of separations and sensors (including microfluidics), materials for sensing and antifouling applications on aquatic deployed systems.
The views expressed within this blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of their employers or of the Royal Irish Academy.
About the blog series
In January 2024 the Environmental Protection Agency published Ireland’s Climate Change Assessment (ICCA), a comprehensive and authoritative assessment of the state of knowledge around all key aspects of climate change, with a central focus on Ireland. The report provides an assessment of our understanding of climate change, tying together all available lines of evidence to provide actionable information.
The Royal Irish Academy’s Climate Change and Environmental Science Committee recognises that it has a role to play in communication and advocacy for climate action in Ireland. Through a four-part blog series the committee aims to distil and offer perspectives on each of the four ICCA volumes with the goal of highlighting the importance of their content and promoting and sustaining a discussion around the topics addressed.
Read the next blog in the series here.
